Pagano: It's going to be a great journey
Football Betting Lines
01/26/2012 - Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts introduced new head coach Chuck Pagano to the media on Thursday.
It has been a whirlwind week for the former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator who anticipated being in Indianapolis for another reason.
"I thought, for sure, that I was going to be coming to Indy to play for a world championship," admitted the 51-year-old Pagano. "That's what I thought I was coming here for, certainly not standing here as the next head football coach."
Pagano and the Ravens lost to the New England Patriots on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game after Billy Cundiff missed a game-tying field goal in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter.
"Words can't describe the emotions that I'm going through right now and the feelings," Pagano said. "Coming off probably the most devastating loss that I've ever been a part of in the AFC championship game and to go in that locker room and see the faces and we all know how hard it is to get to that stage and to see the tears. It's an all-time low, and the last thing I ever expected came across my table and now here I [stand] at an all-time high."
Pagano was the Ravens' defensive coordinator in 2011, and the unit ranked third in total defense and allowed the third-fewest points in the NFL. He was Baltimore's secondary coach for three seasons prior to taking over the defense.
"I can't tell you how excited I am," the first-time head coach added. "It's the next chapter, another journey, and it's going to be a great journey."
Pagano takes over a 2-14 team that could be in a complete transition depending on the status of star quarterback Peyton Manning. The four-time MVP missed the entire 2011 season because of neck surgery, and with Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck available as the first pick in the NFL Draft, Manning's tenure with the Colts is clearly in doubt.
Regardless of the personnel at his disposal, Pagano said he "can't wait to go to work and start building and recreating the excitement and passion and energy that's been here for so long."
Pagano was also the defensive backs coach for the Oakland Raiders (2005-06) and secondary coach with the Cleveland Browns (2001-04). He has also held a string of jobs at the collegiate level.
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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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